Global Warming Could Reach Twice Of What Climate Models Forecast

Future global warming could be twice as warm as foreseen by various climate models. According to an international team of researchers from 17 countries, if the world meets the 2℃ or more, the sea levels could rise 6 metres and more. The findings were published in Nature Geoscience. They are based on the observations drawn from three warm periods of the past 3.5 million years -

• Holocene thermal maximum - 5000-9000 years ago,
• The last interglacial - 129,000 - 116,000 years ago
• Mid Pliocene warm period - (3.3 - 3 million years ago)

At that time, the world was 0.5℃-2℃ warmer than the 19th century pre-industrial temperatures.

The research also brought to light how a significant portion of the polar ice caps could crumble and how there could be consequential changes in ecosystem such as Sahara desert becoming green etc. Observations suggest that climate models often reflect a number of amplifying mechanisms poorly and increase the warming temperatures in the long term more than what is predicted by current climate models.

Increasing temperatures on Earth are much faster than any of the period observed in the study. Even if we stop all our emissions today, it would take centuries for the temperature to stabilise and our planet reaching equilibrium. The changes due to global warming have been profound. This is a wakeup call for our leaders to urgently address the emissions as the changes could be beyond control after a while.

By: Neha Maheshwari

Content: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180705110027.htm