Can India’s Economy Can Reach $ 5 Trillion?

A few days ago, when I spoke with the leading ministers of the states of India, the prime minister, Narendra, said, "an economy of $ 5 trillion" in 2024, once again face re-election. This would be, he said, "challenging, but achievable."
Moderate could not be accused of lack of ambition, but yes, fact that make the GDP of India is 5 trillion dollars in five years. India is, at present, an economy of $ 2.8 trillion; to reach $ 5 trillion in 2024, the economy will require nominal growth in dollar terms of more than 12% per year. For this, in the last quarter for which the data are available, India grew to less than 6% in real terms, and if the former chief economist of the Modi government, that information is wrong, and India may be growing. a few percentage points less than that.
India could and should aspire to double-digit growth. However, a little sustained growth at that level, has little hope of employing approximately one million young people who join their workforce each month. And unless it takes advantage of its current and favorable demographics, it is likely never to emerge as a middle-income economy with a prosperous and prosperous class of media.
But the prerequisites for the kind of growth that transformed the fortunes of Asian tigers and then of China have not yet been established. The support markets for land and labor simply do not exist. The energy supply and infrastructure are much better than what already existed, but we still do not meet the necessary requirements to build a world-class manufacturing sector. And although successive governments have paid attention to the need to educate young people.
If India has very little, a scenario of "business as usual", in fact we are growing. The growth, if the skeptics are right, will be moderated by Indian standards. If it grows closer to 6% per year in terms of dollars, then the Indian economy will only reach 5 trillion dollars in production in a decade, much more than Modi wants.
It will also be an economy and a country very different from that size. The India of 2029, if it continues to grow at 6%, will be very unequal, not only in terms of personal income and wealth, but also between regions. By then, parts of India (the southern peninsula, the national capital of Delhi and the coastal regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra) may have reached an income state in the same direction.
But the vast interior of India, which is also, by the way, where population growth is highest, is considered poor. These are the areas, the last electoral elections, the composition and orientation of the national government of India. Its power within Indian politics will only grow, and India's behavior towards the rest of the world will reflect its attitudes and priorities.
Today, parts of India are seen in Southeast Asia and other parts such as sub-Saharan Africa. That difference is intensified in the absence of double-digit growth. The centrifugal forces that are activated, are already visible in Indian politics, can be very destabilizing.
Nor will India have the kind of state that is generally associated with large dynamic networks. The Indian state of today follows the ordering of resources and enough resources. It is configured more for a large economy than for global production or sophisticated manufacturing. He has difficulty implementing large-scale infrastructure projects or for regular sectors independently and transparently. Nor will it have the money for a defense sector in line with the high expectations of the Indians or the world.

By: Preeti Narula

Content: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/can-india-become-a-5-trillion-economy/articleshow/69869145.cms