Study Speculates Next 5 Years To Be Abnormally Hot

A study published in Nature Communications and led by Florian Sevellec, a CNRS researcher at the Laboratory for Ocean Physics and Remote Sensing (LOPS) and at the University of Southampton predicts that 2018 was a hot year and next few years would be no different.The study has used a new method to show that 2018-2022 might be hotter than expected. The expected predictions are based on current global warming. Greenhouse gas emissions have caused warming of the planet. This warming is, however, not linear. Moreover, it has lapsed in the 21st century, an occurrence that is called as global warming hiatus.

The new method used by the researchers does not use traditional simulation techniques but applies statistical method. It has been proven that the precision and reliability of this probabilistic systems are at least similar, if not more, than the current methods used. The proof is particularly true for using the method to simulate the global warming status. The new method has predicted that the mean air temperature might be abnormally high in 2018-2022.

The inferences might be attributed to low probability of intense cold events. The phenomenon is even more important with respect to sea surface temperatures. There are also more chances of heat events that can lead to more tropical storm activity.

Scientists would now like to adapt the new method to make more regional predictions and apart from temperatures, provide estimates for precipitation and drought as well.

By: Neha Maheshwari

Content: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180815105319.htm