The Global Increase In Sea Level Could Cross The Expectation

Scientists believe that global sea levels could increase much more than expected, due to the acceleration of melting in Greenland and Antarctica.

The long-held vision has been that the seas of the world would rise by a maximum of just under one meter by 2100.

This new study, on the basis of expert opinions, reflects that the actual level can be approximately double that figure.

This could lead to the displacement of hundreds of millions of people, say the authors.

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The question of sea level rise was one of the most controversial issues which is raised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), when it published its fifth evaluation report in 2013.

He said that the continuous warming of the planet, without major reductions in emissions, would cause global waters to increase between 52 cm and 98 cm by the year 2100.

Ice scientists are also concerned that the models currently used to predict the influence of huge ice sheets at sea level do not capture all the uncertainties about how they are melting.

Doomsday

To try to get a clearer picture, some of the leading researchers in the field carried out what is called a structured study of expert judgments, where scientists make predictions based on their knowledge and understanding of what is happening in Greenland, west and east of Antarctica.

From the point of view of the researchers, if the emissions continue in the current trajectory, it is very probable that the seas of the world increase between 62 cm and 238 cm by the year 2100. This would be in a world that would have warmed around 5 ° C, one of the worst case scenarios for global warming.

"By 2100, the contribution of the ice sheet is very likely in the range of 7-178 cm, but once it adds glaciers and ice layers outside the ice sheets and thermal expansion of the seas, it tilts more two meters, "said lead author, Prof. Jonathan Bamber of the University of Bristol.

The IPCC report in 2013 only considered what is "likely" to happen, which in scientific terms means that they observed 17-83% of the range of possibilities.

This new study analyzes a wider range of results, covering 5-95% of the estimates.

"When you start to see these lower but still plausible probability values, experts believe that there is a small but statistically significant likelihood that West Antarctica will move into a very unstable state and parts of East Antarctica will also start contributing." said Professor Bamber.

"But it's only in these higher probabilities for 5C that we see that kind of behavior."

According to the authors, this scenario would have enormous implications for the planet.

They calculate that the world would lose an area of land equivalent to 1.79 million square kilometers, equivalent to the size of Libya.

By: Preeti Narula

Content: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48337629